Oscar predictions 2025

Every year I attempt to predict who will take home the Oscars in the ten “main” categories.  I usually – but by no means always – do reasonably well, so here are my predictions for 2025’s awards ceremony.

Remember, these are who I think will win, not who I think should win!

Best picture – The Brutalist

I definitely wouldn’t discount Conclave or Anora pulling off a surprise win, but the momentum certainly seems to be behind The Brutalist in the final run up to the Oscars.

Nominees:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked (Part One)

Best actress – Demi Moore (The Substance)

Although Mikey Madison won the BAFTA, and Fernanda Torres picked up a Golden Globe, Demi Moore looked set to gain awards recognition for her performance in The Substance (even before Karla Sofía Gascón self-destructed her award chances).

Nominees:
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked (Part One)
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Fernanda Torres – I'm Still Here

Best actor – Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

Although Timothée Chalamet was a surprise winner at the SAG Awards, Adrien Brody has pretty much picked up all the other main acting awards, and looks set to take the Oscar too.

Nominees:
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

Best supporting actress – Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

In a year when many categories are very close, Zoe Saldaña looks an almost certain shoe-in for this Oscar (despite the controversy around the fact that many consider her to be the leading actress in Emilia Pérez, not a supporting actress).

Nominees:
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked (Part One)
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez

Best supporting actor – Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

The other category that looks pretty sewn up is this one – if Kieran Culkin doesn’t win, it will be a huge upset.

Nominees:
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

Best director – Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

Given the momentum behind The Brutalist in the other categories, I think this Oscar will go to Brady Corbet (despite Sean Baker’s win at the DGA Awards).

Nominees:
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown

Best adapted screenplay – Conclave

Although I don’t think Conclave is likely to win in any of the other “main” categories, I think it stands its best chance of Oscars recognition in this category.

Nominees:
A Complete Unknown – Jay Cocks and James Mangold
Conclave – Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard
Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar

Best original screenplay – A Real Pain

This could be a close call (and I certainly wouldn’t discount Anora winning), but as I can only pick one predicted winner, I think A Real Pain may have slightly more momentum behind it.

Nominees:
Anora – Sean Baker
The Brutalist – Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg
September 5 – Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David
The Substance – Coralie Fargeat

Best cinematography – The Brutalist

My heart says that no one deserves this more than Greig Fraser for his stunning work on Dune: Part Two, but I think the fact that he already won an Oscar for the first Dune film may count against him, so my head says that Lol Crawley is far more likely to win for The Brutalist.

Nominees:
The Brutalist – Lol Crawley
Dune: Part Two – Greig Fraser
Emilia Pérez – Paul Guilhaume
Maria – Ed Lachman
Nosferatu – Jarin Blaschke

Best costume design – Wicked (Part One)

This one could go to Conclave (which did have great-but-grounded costumes), but I think Wicked’s sense of flair and spectacle may be enough to win in this category (which I think is likely to be its only win in the “main” categories).

Nominees:
Wicked (Part One) – Paul Tazewell
Nosferatu – Linda Muir
A Complete Unknown – Arianne Phillips
Conclave – Lisy Christl
Gladiator II – Janty Yates and Dave Crossman

So there you have it – come back after the Oscars on 2 March to see how I did!  Last year I managed to get 8 out of 10 correct (one of my best results) … so I’m hoping to replicate that success again this year!