Oscar predictions 2022

Every year I attempt to predict who will take home the Oscars in the ten “main” categories. I usually – but by no means always – do reasonably well, so here are my predictions for 2022’s awards ceremony.

Remember, these are who I think will win, not who I think should win!

Best picture – The Power of the Dog

Early contender West Side Story appears to have dropped out of the running, leaving The Power of the Dog the frontrunner … although it looks like CODA could potentially stage a last-minute upset.

Nominees:
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Belfast
Dune
Licorice Pizza
King Richard
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Nightmare Alley

Best actress – Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)

While the early momentum seemed to be behind Nicole Kidman, I think Jessica Chastain may ultimately take the statue home.

Nominees:
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers

Best actor – Will Smith (King Richard)

While there’s a slim chance that Andrew Garfield could stage a surprise upset, this one seems to be Will Smith’s to lose.

Nominees:
Will Smith – King Richard
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick... Boom!
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos

Best supporting actress – Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)

If there’s such a thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to predicting Oscars, then Ariana DeBose taking this year’s Best Supporting Actress may be it.

Nominees:
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
Dame Judi Dench – Belfast
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter

Best supporting actor – Troy Kotsur (CODA)

Not quite a “sure thing”, but Troy Kotsur certainly seems to be the clear favourite in this category, although it’s possible that the love for The Power of the Dog could swing this Kodi Smit-McPhee’s way at the last minute.

Nominees:
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
Ciarán Hinds – Belfast
Troy Kotsur – CODA
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos

Best director – Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)

Having lost out to Steven Spielberg (for Schindler's List) in 1994 when she was nominated for Best Director for The Piano, it seems like no one is going to stand in Jane Campion’s way a second time.

Nominees:
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
Sir Kenneth Branagh – Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car

Best adapted screenplay – CODA

Having seen how expertly Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth condensed the huge universe-spanning content of the novel Dune into their screenplay, I feel they deserve the Oscar – but given how the Academy largely turns its nose up at sci-fi films, I think CODA will be the eventual winner, just ahead of The Power of the Dog.

Nominees:
The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion
The Lost Daughter – Maggie Gyllenhaal
CODA – Sian Heder
Dune – Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe

Best original screenplay – Belfast

This year, I think the Best Original Screenplay category is the hardest one to predict. I’ve gone for Belfast … but I think it could just as easily be Licorice Pizza, and you can’t even completely discount Don’t Look Up!

Nominees:
Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson
Belfast – Sir Kenneth Branagh
King Richard – Zach Baylin
Don't Look Up – Adam McKay (story by McKay and David Sirota)
The Worst Person in the World – Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt

Best cinematography – Dune

While I think Dune will be unfairly overlooked for Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay (and Denis Villeneuve wasn’t even nominated for Best Director), I think Greig Fraser is in with a real (and very well deserved) shot at Best Cinematography. Dune was my "Most Visually Stunning Film of 2021", and Greig Fraser’s cinematography in The Batman is one of the highlights of that film too, so he’s definitely on a roll at the moment.

Nominees:
Dune – Greig Fraser
The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner
The Tragedy of Macbeth – Bruno Delbonnel
Nightmare Alley – Dan Laustsen
West Side Story – Janusz Kaminski

Best costume design – Cruella

The costume designs on Cruella were not only a highlight of the film, but they were also a central part of its plot, so they put Jenny Beavan head and shoulders above the other nominees in my opinion.

Nominees:
Cruella – Jenny Beavan
Dune – Jacqueline West and Bob Morgan
West Side Story – Paul Tazewell
Nightmare Alley – Luis Sequeira
Cyrano – Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran

I also want to say, as much as I enjoyed Encanto, if The Mitchells vs. The Machines doesn’t win Best Animated Feature it’ll be a travesty!

I won’t mind if Encanto and Lin-Manuel Miranda win Best original song for “Dos Oruguitas” – although given that it’s not even in the top three best songs from that movie, I personally hope that Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell win for No Time to Die.

So there you have it – come back after the Oscars on 27 March to see how I did! Last year I managed 7/10, which wasn’t my best result, but wasn’t bad either...